Pro football betting stats for basketball

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The games with the biggest difference are where I find the most value. But over time I've found that my numbers are usually stronger than the oddsmakers, so I trust my own numbers. You should do the same. Right away the numbers will move, and after the late Sunday NFL game ends usually gamblers are ready to bet the next week of football games.

Sometime between Wednesday and Thursday the NFL numbers will generally move again and that is when I really start looking into the games I have circled. Sometimes the line movement helps and sometimes the line movement kills me. But at least I can recognize how the number will move throughout the weekend. Also, waiting for that second line movement will tell you things such as how the weather will be that Sunday, and the injury list will be clarified a bit better than earlier in the week.

It could be that they are overrated in the eyes of the public or it could be poor coaching or inconsistent quarterback play. But there are some teams that you want to stay far away from when they are dressed up in the role of the big favorite. The Dallas Cowboys usually fall into this category. Some other teams — usually teams that are built on a strong running game and tough defense — are always much better in the underdog role than they are laying points.

Don't try too hard to buck the odds with these teams. Either stay away completely or hold your nose and take the points. It is called the "active underdog over theory". The active underdog theory is essentially taking an underdog that you believe will be an active underdog either due to revenge against a team from an earlier season loss, coming off a double-digit loss, losing outright to a team they were heavily favored against, etc. So you expect a team that is looking to exceed expectations over the line currently constructed for them.

So anytime that you think a team that is an underdog is going to exceed expectations against a team then take the 'over'. This is because if the underdog is highly motivated as we discussed for revenge, coming off a double-digit loss, or losing outright to a team they were favored straight up against, then certainly they will be motivated to exceed the amount of points they are expected to score in their next game.

If you find yourself having the same opinion of an NFL team as everyone else then you most likely shouldn't be betting for or against that team. They say 95 percent of the NFL bettors will lose money betting during the regular season. Thinking like everyone else is setting you up for failure when it comes to the NFL. Find good reasons to try and go against the public perception in the NFL as the betting public heavily influences the lines.

The best strategy is to bet against the public in the NFL. Time and again, Team A either dramatically exceeds expectations or falls well short of what the market presumed. Oddsmakers understand, especially on public teams, that the marketplace average bettors will place too much emphasis on what they just witnessed and release a line for the next game knowing they will take the bait and leave them vulnerable again. A way to avoid this type of reactionary betting is to understand why either instance occurred.

Was the turnover battle one-sided and Team A cashed in on short fields repeatedly? Did Team B actually outgain their opponent by more than yards but fumbled three times without losing the ball, just no yardage gained or pile up yards of penalties, which left them behind the chains the entire game? Or, did one club have a terrific or awful game that had all the makings of an outlier performance, and chances are they will return to normal in the next game?

Study the box scores to better understand unusual outcomes and place the odds in your favor and avoid being a square bettor. Finding situational spots can be the key to coming out ahead. This is often a better strategy than attempting to create true lines that are more accurate than the Vegas odds.

Situational trends can be profitable, as long as they are relevant and predictive, instead of descriptive. When assessing such a trend, it makes complete sense. The public are always going to come in heavy against these bad teams from last season and the oddsmakers know this. As we just mentioned -- the NFL market is extremely efficient, so you can take advantage in this instance by being on the same side as the book and winning long-term without ever having to worry about traditional handicapping methods.

An example of a descriptive trend which you will want to stay away from at all costs would be something like this: Aaron Rodgers is on Thursday Night Football. First of all, this is a tiny sample size. It is also completely descriptive and provides no future predictive value. They aren't entirely random, but there certainly isn't a pattern that you can use to predict what would happen next. So, when it comes to handicapping Bob's next game, the QB rating by itself has very little use.

He could match that number, go way over it, or go way under it - we have no way of knowing. So, using that number in our handicapping probably isn't very useful. What if, though, we found that Bob had completed nine out of 10 passes out of the shotgun in the last game. And then we found that he had been very effective out of the shotgun for the last four weeks. Now we might be on to something. If we spotted it, we know that the defensive coordinator of his next opponent did, too.

But if the defense has struggled against the shotgun, then suddenly the stats have painted a picture we are interested in. Because he has been very good out of the shotgun, we have some reason to believe he could be very good out of the shotgun again. That doesn't mean that he will automatically win, but no stat means that - and the sooner we can understand that the better. Stats are not magic bullets - they are just clues. Is it relevant?

The most classic one of these that I hear so often has to do with a team's performance against the spread. I'm making this up, but let's say that we heard that the Denver Broncos were ATS in their last 10 games following a loss by more than two touchdowns. A lot of people would tell themselves that that is a sure reason to bet them a week after they were just blown out. They need to tell themselves something else instead - who gives a damn?

The Broncos this year have a new head coach, two new coordinators, a new quarterback, several other personnel changes, and are in a division that has changed plenty as well. Without looking, we know that that streak stretches back a minimum of two seasons and likely significantly longer. So, the fact that a bunch of other guys in the past - perhaps the distant past - reacted in one way to a situation, tells us absolutely nothing at all about how this team is going to react.

It's completely meaningless. That might seem like an extreme example, but there are all sorts of cases where this comes up all the time. How a quarterback has performed against a team in the past rarely matters because of how rarely a lot of teams play each other and how quickly personnel changes in the league, for example.